Non-Yadav OBC calculus stays a examined formulation for BJP in Lok Sabha bypolls

Non-Yadav OBC calculus remains a tested formula for BJP in Lok Sabha bypolls

2022-11-22 11:43:46

Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath with State BJP leaders celebrating the victory of party candidates in Rampur and Azamgarh Lok Sabha by-election at a press conference,  in  Lucknow on June 26, 2022.  File photo

Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath with State BJP leaders celebrating the victory of social gathering candidates in Rampur and Azamgarh Lok Sabha by-election at a press convention, in Lucknow on June 26, 2022. File photograph
| Photograph Credit score: Sandeep Saxena

With the Bharatiya Janata Occasion (BJP) nominating Raghuraj Singh Shakya, who belongs to Shakya – an Different Backward Courses (OBC) group – as its candidate for the high-pitched Mainpuri bypoll in Uttar Pradesh, the saffron social gathering’s tried and examined technique of fielding a candidate from a non-Yadav OBC social group that represents a sizeable inhabitants in that individual constituency although not having the numerical or political energy throughout the State, has as soon as once more come to the fore.

In U.P., which sends 80 members to Lok Sabha and occurs to be the ruling BJP‘s epicentre of political stability, it has devised this fascinating social mixture for Parliamentary bypolls since its rise within the electoral horizon of the State in 2014.

The technique to offer candidature to numerically lesser vital non-Yadav OBCs is opposite to the BJP’s ticket distribution in Vidhan Sabha and Lok Sabha polls, wherein it offers larger illustration to the higher castes.

Since 2014, when the saffron social gathering made an upsurge within the State beneath Narendra Modi, 5 of the final seven Lok Sabha bypolls (all had been high-stake battles) have seen the social gathering giving candidature to non-Yadav OBC nominees who had been numerically weaker State-wide. This contains prestigious seats like Mainpuri, Phulpur, Rampur and Kairana. Other than Azamgarh, the place the social gathering repeated a Yadav nominee, it has restrained from giving ticket to Yadavs.

Accessible information present that for the Mainpuri bypoll held in 2014, after Mulayam Singh Yadav vacated the seat and retained Azamgarh, the saffron social gathering made Prem Singh Shakya its candidate towards the Samajwadi Occasion’s (SP) Tej Pratap Singh Yadav. It was the primary election in Mainpuri the place the BJP acquired greater than three lakh votes, which gave the social gathering perception that it might breach the last word citadel of the SP. Shakya just isn’t thought-about as a dominant group throughout the OBC pyramid of U.P., like Yadavs, Kurmis or Kushwahas.

Classes learnt

Within the 2004 Parliamentary polls when the saffron social gathering was in energy on the Centre, it gave candidature to Ram Babu Kushwaha from Mainpuri. Nonetheless, Mr. Kushwaha polled solely round 14,000 votes and misplaced deposit. Kushwahas are thought-about a dominant agrarian OBC group within the Hindi belt.

The BJP strategists imagine that placing a non-Yadav OBC candidate from a social group which has good illustration in a selected constituency, however just isn’t numerically or electorally dominant throughout the State, helps the social gathering get a serious chunk of votes from its loyal higher caste base as these candidates wouldn’t be seen as a menace to the higher castes’ political domination. Furthermore, the transfer helps the social gathering to get each Brahmins and Rajputs stand facet by facet within the bypolls. 

Historical past of bypolls within the State within the final eight years additionally highlights that each time the social gathering selected a candidate from a pan-State, dominant higher caste social group, it has led to a reversal within the social gathering’s fortunes. The Gorakhpur Parliamentary bypoll of 2018 was the very best instance of this because the social gathering misplaced what it thought-about to be its most secure seat within the State, which was represented by current Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, when it gave the candidature to Upendra Butt Shukla, a Brahmin. The Samajwadi Occasion’s (SP) Praveen Nishad gained the high-stake battle when the CM vacated the seat after getting elected for the State’s prime put up.

Curiously, these numerically weaker OBCs have gotten hardly any illustration within the prime chambers of energy occupied by the U.P. leaders, be it within the State or on the Centre. In U.P., whereas the CM belongs to the dominant Rajput group, one Deputy CM, Brajesh Pathak, is from the Brahmin group which makes up roughly 9% of the State’s inhabitants as per the caste-based census held in 1931.

Within the Central authorities, each the Cupboard Ministers who initially hail from U.P. belong to dominant higher caste teams. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and Minister of Heavy Industries and Public Enterprises Mahendra Nath Pandey are from Rajput and Brahmin communities respectively.

Even Hukum Singh, who belonged to the Gurjar group, and was among the many most senior BJP leaders to have gained within the 2014 Lok Sabha polls from the State, was not included within the Union Cupboard. The Gurjar group is restricted to some districts of western U.P. and is taken into account numerically weaker. However, when he died in 2018, the social gathering gave his daughter Mriganka Singh the candidature from Kairana within the Lok Sabha bypoll, and continued the technique of giving candidature to non-Yadav OBC teams.

A successful formulation

The social gathering has clearly reaped electoral positive factors utilizing the formulation. Within the current Rampur Lok Sabha bypoll, it was in a position to take the stronghold of the SP by fielding Ghanshyam Singh Lodhi, a Lodhi OBC, as its candidate. The caste group has not a lot electoral significance apart from within the eight-odd Parliamentary seats in central-western U.P., in contrast to Yadavs or Kurmis.

Analysts imagine that the technique helps the saffron social gathering in some ways. On one hand it helps the social gathering to get the votes of the group which is in sizeable numbers within the explicit Lok Sabha constituency and consolidate the higher castes or dominant social teams that are already thought-about loyal to it. On the opposite, it additionally helps the social gathering in non-Yadav polarisation.

Sumit Kumar, a social scientist, who teaches in College of Delhi, stated, “In Gorakhpur, the BJP misplaced the 2018 polls with its Brahmin candidate resulting from counter-polarisation or, we might say, when a backward class unity occurred. However when the BJP nominates a non-Yadav OBC candidate, it helps the social gathering to restrain such a polarisation and do a counter-polarisation towards the opposition’s core vote financial institution.”

Such evaluation appears true as within the Rampur bypoll, regardless of roughly 48% of the voters belonging to Muslim group, which is taken into account loyal to the SP, the BJP was in a position to wrest the seat. With all this within the background, it must be seen that if the BJP might repeat the identical in Mainpuri, which is taken into account the ultimate Parliamentary citadel of the SP by its non-Yadav OBC calculus.

#NonYadav #OBC #calculus #stays #examined #formulation #BJP #Lok #Sabha #bypolls

Supply by []