What Matters: The paradox of the GOP position on ballot counting

Days until we all know who received: ?????? (More on that in a second).

Ballots already forged: 66.5 million+.

Numerical context: More individuals have now voted general in 2020 than voted for both Hillary Clinton (65.9 million) or Donald Trump (63.zero million) in 2016.

The fantasy Trump desires you to imagine — Despite what the President retains repeating, the election isn’t over at midnight on November 3. If you’ve got learn a lot of this article, you’ve got seen our warnings, contra Trump, to not prejudge the outcomes.

Counting the votes may (probably will!) take some time. That’s a truth. Which is why Twitter marked Trump’s tweet Tuesday that outcomes have to be identified on election evening as deceptive. We “must know final total November 3rd,” he wrote in the submit, which additionally made wild allegations about mail-in ballots.

That’s fantasy, not a truth. He desires you to suppose that as a result of Democrats are extra inclined to vote by mail this 12 months. That’s a truth borne out in early voting information. Those mail-in votes won’t be counted in any respect in some locations till the day AFTER Election Day. Here’s the full breakdown on when states can start processing ballots.

Late begin in a key state. Counties in Pennsylvania, which is shaping as much as be the most contested battleground in the closing days of the election, cannot begin processing mail-in ballots till 7 a.m. on Election Day.

But they don’t seem to be required to start out processing these ballots till three days after Election Day. Gov. Tom Wolf, a Democrat, is encouraging counties to course of ballots ASAP on Election Day. Separately, Trump threatened Wolf that he’d withhold aid funding from Pennsylvania the subsequent time the state wants it. Which is bonkers.

But some counties might wait. An official in Erie County, which has been closely contested by the candidates this 12 months, informed CNN’s Kelly Mena the county would flip to mail-in ballots late at evening, after day-of outcomes had been processed. Cumberland County, which supported Trump in 2016, is one of the ones which have beforehand transmitted they will not course of mail-in votes on Election Day. In this 12 months’s main, it took the county three days to course of mail-in votes. If this factor is shut, which means everybody will probably be ready on these outcomes.

Wisconsin is one other battleground state that would assist determine the election, and likewise one of 4 that don’t permit processing earlier than Election Day. See a map of all states and Adam Levy’s story.

Efforts to carry Pennsylvania consistent with the majority of US states and permit election officers to course of the anticipated crush of mail-in ballots sooner than November Three have been rejected by the Republican-controlled state House.

Republicans at the nationwide stage, in different phrases, have teed up this fantasy that the outcomes have to be identified whereas their fellow get together members have blocked, at the state stage in battlegrounds, tweaks to election legislation that will make counting votes simpler and quicker.

Kavanaugh thinks outcomes are ‘flipped’ by counting votes

Now Trump is getting some consolation from the Supreme Court, the place Justice Brett Kavanaugh, who together with fellow Justices John Roberts and Amy Coney Barrett, worked with the Bush campaign in 2000 to squash a Florida recount, transmitted Monday evening that he is not going to assist maintain the doorways open to get votes counted.
In the footnote to an opinion by which he and the majority rejected makes an attempt to permit mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day to be acquired in the days after, Kavanaugh sounded a heck of so much like Trump, as CNN’s Ariane de Vogue wrote:

States that require mail-in ballots to be returned by the Election Day, Kavanaugh wrote in his concurring opinion, “want to avoid the chaos and suspicions of impropriety that can ensue if thousands of absentee ballots flow in after Election Day and potentially flip the results of an election.”

Kavanaugh reveals his hand right here with the phrase “flip the results of an election.”

Anyone desirous about democracy (or a fundamental studying of US election legislation) would understand the outcomes aren’t identified till the votes are counted. Kavanaugh sounds each bit the GOP lawyer he as soon as was when he argues it is the timeline, not the votes, that ought to decide a winner. It’s precisely what he did for George W. Bush 20 years in the past.

There is so much of time — greater than a month! — to depend votes and settle disputes. And even that deadline is not very laborious, in keeping with some authorized consultants.

Electoral votes — The actual issues that decide the winner of US presidential elections, for higher or worse, aren’t due till December 14. And they don’t seem to be counted till January 4.

Rest assured, Wolf Blitzer will not announce CNN has projected a winner except CNN’s resolution desk sees no statistical doable change. At the similar time, Blitzer isn’t the official arbiter of elections. States are.

States, below the Constitution — as Brett Kavanaugh, originalist — ought to know, run their very own elections. They have greater than a month to depend ballots and settle disputes below federal legislation. (Bookmark the full post-election timeline.)

Election evening will probably be an emotional curler coaster. That’s assured.

No one actually is aware of how this election evening will go, however listed below are some situations. First, make three assumptions (which may very well be unsuitable, however are backed up by information):

  • The financial institution of early votes (once more, greater than 66 million up to now) may favor Democrats.
  • Election Day votes may favor Republicans.
  • Late-arriving (or late-counted) mail-in votes may favor Democrats.

Now let’s apply these assumptions to what we find out about election evening:

Excitement for Biden early –– The explosion of early voting in Florida, a state that permits officers to course of these ballots forward of time, means there may very well be a complete lot of already-counted vote to be reported when the final polls shut in the state at eight p.m. ET.

The similar may very well be true in in Georgia and North Carolina, two extra key states with early ballot closings.

If these early outcomes do favor Democrats, which means the early returns on election evening may probably look higher for Biden than the ultimate outcomes.

One week from Election Day, early voters up to now are youthful, extra racially numerous and extra prone to be Democrats than they have been forward of the 2016 election in lots of of the key states that would determine the subsequent president.

He has information from key states nationwide, and the story in virtually all of them is the development of younger voters in that early vote. Read extra.

Then, pleasure for Trump — But this doable early Biden bump might not final if states like Florida report early voting when polls shut.

Election Day returns, which may favor Republicans, might very nicely make issues tighten up as the evening progresses. It may really feel very thrilling to observe CNN’s John King at the Magic Wall and see the numbers get nearer. Tune in!

Further, in Pennsylvania, when polls shut at eight p.m. ET, and in Michigan and Wisconsin, when polls shut at 9 p.m. ET, it’s doable the early Election Day vote additional favors Trump, despite the fact that so much of absentee votes are nonetheless ready to be counted. Some good-seeming untimely information for Republicans.

This so-called purple mirage may happen in a quantity of states and it is why Trump desires election evening outcomes to be the outcomes, despite the fact that they don’t seem to be.

Finally, the blue shift, when ballots trickle in by mail to the states that depend ballots postmarked by Election Day however arriving afterward. Democrats usually tend to say they’re going to vote by mail, recall.

So if we finish election evening with no projected winner, it is virtually assured there will probably be some motion towards Biden in the days after Election Day.

And that is how the entire nation, collectively, purple and blue, will get an ulcer collectively.

But you will simply must bear with it and look ahead to the votes to be counted. And actually, there are all the time surprises in an election. Always.

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